Friday, November 25, 2005

Of course, of course....

The LA Times reports:

President Bush will give a major speech Wednesday at the U.S. Naval Academy in which aides say he is expected to proclaim the improved readiness of Iraqi troops, which he has identified as the key condition for withdrawing U.S. forces.

The developments seemed to lay the groundwork for potentially large withdrawals in 2006 and 2007, consistent with scenarios outlined by Pentagon planners. The approach also tracks the thinking of some centrist Democrats such as Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., D-Del., the senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Some analysts say the emerging consensus might have less to do with conditions in Iraq than the long-term strain of the deployment on the U.S. military. And major questions over the readiness of Iraq's fledgling security forces pose risks for any strategy that calls for an accelerated American troop withdrawal.

As recently as late September, senior U.S. military commanders told a congressional hearing that just one Iraqi battalion, about 700 soldiers, was considered capable of conducting combat operations fully independent of any U.S. support. Administration officials now dismiss that measure of military readiness, saying more Iraqi units are able to perform advanced operations each day.

Bush's handling of the war has the support of about 35 percent of the public, according to the latest Gallup poll; other surveys have showed recently that only 40 percent of Americans believe the president is honest and trustworthy.

In recent months, Bush has rebuffed questions about a schedule for withdrawal, saying that providing a specific timetable would hearten insurgents and encourage them to wait out the Americans.

Other factors are also at work, including signs of a revised sense of Iraq's own military capabilities. Rice's upbeat statement earlier this week that Iraq forces "fairly soon" would be able to defend their country came just a few days after a brief trip to Iraq.

Some analysts see the same progress that Rice does, yet are worried that the White House might move too fast.

Gary J. Schmitt, director of advanced strategic studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said that while some Iraqi units have improved their capabilities, "to get a force that is really effective requires a lot more experience than this army is likely to have for years."

Ok, maybe I wasa little off on the "within 6 months" prediction. It appears that the bush administration is going to officially kick off the "Iraqi Troops are Ready" marketing plan as early as this upcoming Wednesday.

I admit that I hadn't considered the idea that a main reason for troop withdrawl might center around the concern over the strain placed upon the US military. I suppose that makes perfect sense though, especially when one looks at the missed Army recruiting target numbers and the lack of current soldiers "re-upping."

I'm not sure we in Canada truly realize the amount of business generated by a huge US military. It is an economic force and if it were to significantly dwindle, I suspect that it would adversely affect the greater US economy. Plus the aura of US military might is a source of national and political pride. Hence, I suppose, the concern over a weakened US military in the face of an ongoing war in Iraq. Hence, the pullout.

In humanitarian circles, the main concern with a quick US withdrawl is the fact that the Iraqi military is not, in any way, prepared to deal with the insurgency. Today, for example, at least 30 people were killed and 27 wounded when a car bomb exploded outside a hospital in a town south of Baghdad. Doesn't sound much like a safe haven for anyone. Doesn't sound like the insurgency has any trouble blowing up hospitals and people. Doesn't seem like Iraqi forces can prevent things like this from happening.

What a rock and a hard place, hey? If the US pulls out, there is a better than excellent chance that Iraq will slip into a religious civil war, creating a perfect environment for terrorists to train, as well as a prime scenario for an authoritarian type of religious government to come to power. Iran isn't that far away you know.

But if the US "stays the course" as bush was so found of saying, we are going to see more civilian deaths, more insurgency bombings, more chaos, as this appears to be a neverending cycle of violence. Also we will continue to see US troops suffer more deaths and maimings. I consider the politics and political fallout of troops remaining as nothing more than minor. I frankly don't care about US political careers when kids are dying in Baghdad streets.

How, ladies and gentlemen, did we get to here? How will history record this era? How do make this right?

The fact is that we cannot right this wrong. Time might, but we can't. It's broke and we can't fix it. And people will die.

A sovereign thought, delivered to your door at 8:32 PM ~~ 0 bonsai trees

shout out out out out out

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